S&P is double hammer as of 2:23am
Right now, still awake trying to finish posting request and charts. As of now, S&P is a double daily hammer, which is a bullish candle indeed. However, do note that Thursday is US holiday and Friday is half trading day. Therefore in any trade, always be cautious.
Genting SP – Bullish engulfing candle at oversold condition
Genting SP today got several bullish signals: bullish engulfing, RSI turning higher from oversold condition, stochastic about to bullish crossover from oversold condition and MACD histogram becoming shorter. Therefore, confirmation is on Wednesday if Genting can closed above today’s candle high. Blackjack anyone?
Noble Grp – Light at the end of the tunnel?
Ok, Let’s start with the toughest counter. I realized that I just shake the hornet’s nest when I started mentioning Noble Grp. I received 6, SIX emails asking why I am so bearish about this counter, why I push the price lower, etc etc etc… You will not believe how passionate some of Noble Grp “investors” can be and why it is a good company to invest, Big Boys are buying, fair value, conspiracy theory…. Let’s just put it this way, I salute the passion…
Let me clarify, before I give my opinion on Noble Grp. I see charts and based on technical analysis, I give my opinions. I do not know Fundamental Analysis (FA), therefore I don’t know the fair value of a company. To me, Noble Grp is no different from DBS, or SGX, or KepCorp, or Libra. I do not have any passion for any company as from my previous experience, especially the last one, I know, loyalty does not pay. Therefore I would like to clarify:
- I do not and cannot caused a company to sell down as I just do not have that much funds to caused it to go lower. I wish I have, but unfortunately, I just do not have that much capital. However, I do know that Ruthless Belle promised me a 1 trillion rupiah cheque which I am still waiting… (by the way, how much is 1 trillion rupiah in Sing dollars???)
- I see chart based on TA. As long as the chart does not have bullish signals, I do not catch it. Bearish signals, I mention it. It does not mean that I will long or short all counter that I posted because it would not be fair to you. Imagine if I say I long A-Sonic (the first counter from A-Z in SGX list) first and then I tell everyone that I long A-Sonic so that everyone can push the price higher for me to take profits, that is just not right, right? I would mention if I long indices or currencies because there is no way anyone is that powerful enough to push it the direction I want it to go. Fair?
- I hope every retailer understand their position. Even if you own 100 lots of any counters, the company will not look after your own interest. Every company directors, CEO or chairman looks after theirs and company welfare and if you happen to be in the same direction, then you profited. They don’t bother about you. Maybe at the end of the year, they invite you to their AGM buffet dinner and send you a thick quarterly report for you to stack up your laptop higher. Either way, they do not specifically look after your personal interest as a priority. If they do, I would be worried about that company.
I hope that clarify my position. I am not your enemy. I am just trying to analyze the market and like you, trying to make some money out from the market.
Noble Grp
Noble Grp after falling over the last few days finally have a bullish candle today. Today it closed as a bullish engulfing, a very bullish candle indeed. This could be the bottom everyone is waiting for and it is also the fibonacci 61.8% acting as support. However do note that the confirmation candle is tomorrow (Wednesday) only if it closed above today’s candle. And do remember, there is a very big falling window above 1.285 which will act as future resistance. But if 1.055 short term support crack, the next support would be 0.90.
Blood, blood everywhere… So, can I short?
With hope that the Super Committee to the rescue….. wait… you mean they gave up liao?
Maybe they will lock up all the Super Committee in a room to get a consensus on Thursday? … wait… You mean they have Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and only half trading day on Friday???
You mean to tell me that holidays are more important that the US of A budget? You mean that when they give a deadline that it must be done by Wednesday Nov 23, they are so sure that it will be resolved and no contingency for any Plan B? So, if it is not resolved, all will just go home and eat their hot roasted suckling turkeys???
Wow, can someone elect me to the US Senate Committee? After being rejected from Greece and Italy PM, all I can say is that my resume is all ready for submission.
Now, back to market. Spain just completed their elections over the weekend and… simple. Let me give you a snapshot of www.marketwatch.com main page as of 9:40pm 21/11/11. Circled are all bad news.
So, any good news?
Today, Singapore stocks sell down but the volume luckily is not high. But remember, price is always the truth. And the truth is price is going lower today. And I screened the market today and we have 40 oversold and 2 overbought. Which means market is now in oversold territory. In layman term, yes, market can go lower but if you are thinking of shorting now, you have to be more careful as technical rebound can happen at any time. Plus with US holidays this week and so many USA and European news, anything can happen. Therefore, do understand your risk. Yanlord and Noble Grp was featured in weekly YouTube video and it collapse further today. If you have not watch it, do remember to watch it. and more importantly, do share the YouTube video with your friends.
And if you are thinking of buying? Well, I have not seen any good bullish signals yet. Maybe I am blind, but so far with my eyes, I see nothing yet. And, do remember what i shared in here is just my personal opinion. I am not your broker therefore I cannot give you any advice. Opinion yes, advice no.
S&P 500 – Possible downside projection level
Above are the 2 possible downside projection level based on the symmetrical triangle. You will notice that the right most arrow projection coincidentally coincides with fibonacci 61.8%. That should be a strong bounce there. If not, bulls may be “rest in peace”.
Nov 21, 2011 Weekly Singapore Stocks with Jonathan Tan
Finally market decided on a direction and it is towards the downside. Bears are cheering and bulls are gloomy. European news are in the headlines. With US holidays coming up and Super Committee to decide on US future spending, does the bulls have no hope? How will that affect Singapore stocks? Find out what it is in this week video edition.
Remember to let your friends know about this video, Facebook and weekly webinar (Thurs 10am). Thanks.
SPY – hit the lower symmetrical triangle this morning
This morning, Dow closed -191 points and it seems like there is blood everywhere. However do take note that S&P now is resting at the symmetrical triangle which signify a possible support. Therefore if you are thinking about shorting, do watch your risk and don’t go heavy.
Do note that my chart is not updated. The line drawn is the closing this morning.
That means tonight will know if it will be supported or it will crack. Asia may lead first, but the ultimate story is still Europe.
Nov 17, 2011 Mid-week Singapore Stocks with Jonathan Tan
Market is still consolidating but DAX and FTSE has clearer signals. For Singapore stocks, it is still waiting but something has to happen soon and market will give a direction. What it is? Find out what it is in this week video edition.
Remember to let your friends know about this video, Facebook and weekly webinar (Thurs 10am). Thanks.
Technical Analysis is not accurate
Now that I got your attention, yes, you read it right: Technical Analysis is just not accurate. And I fully AGREE with you that it is not accurate at all. Huh? Jonathan must have gone nuts?
I have been receiving emails asking me if they can depend on technical analysis and give me so many examples where it is not accurate and why they should not use it, and I agree with them. They should not use it because it is not accurate.
If you are thinking if technical analysis can help you in your trading, then you asked the right question. Because in the question, you use the word “help”, and not “win”. That’s because technical analysis is not designed to be accurate, it never was. It is designed only to increase your probability, that’s all. Everyone wants to make money from stock market or forex because it is just so simple. Bet on a direction and in a few minutes, you will be able to make lots of money. Any Tom, Dick or Harry is able to do it. That’s why it is so attractive. And because it is so attractive, everyone is always looking for the holy grail, the Ultimate trading strategy, but alas, there is none to be found. If you want a 50-50 chance, I suggest you go to Marina Bay Sands or Genting Sentosa or any casino and try your luck there. At least if you put a $50, you know that’s how much you will lose, as compared to stocks.
Using technical analysis, if your chance is less than 50% winning, then you will not enter the trade. If it is 50%, you will also skip it because it is just not worth it. If you chances increase to 60%, 70% or even 80% success, then it is a risk worth taking. Remember, it is still a risk. Everything is always a risk. Even if the chance of success is 99%, there is always a risk. Unfortunately, there is no 100% chance of success, because the only thing that is 100% is that sooner or later, I will be dead.
Therefore, please don’t use technical analysis as a holy grail and a sure win because it will only disappoint you. But if you use it expecting it to fail, then it will reward you most of the time.
If you read above, you know that I mention to you that there is no holy grail, no such thing as the ultimate buy signal. I am sorry because that statement is wrong. There is a Ultimate Buy Signal and I have it. So far, only a few people knows about it, and that’s because I shared it with them. And it is so accurate that it can be considered a holy grail. But now is not the time to share it because … I need to sleep, YouTube waiting for me to be uploaded, watching Dow Jones, etc etc…
I will share it next time, ok? Just not today…
By the way, I also have the Ultimate Sell Signal, but it will be shared other day, just not today…
And if you are the few that knows about this special Ultimate signals, please do not share it out first. Thanks…
Reminder: Nov 16, 2011 11PM Mid-week Webinar (Open to everyone)
Remember to join in the webinar tonight at 11pm. All you need to do is just click on the hyperlink below at about 10:50pm and you are in the webinar room.
