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Have to rush this out before I go to sleep. Was looking at several charts and it seems like penny counters could be starting to run. Watch penny counters. High risk, therefore use your profits to play if you are entering. Use the Diamond Cutter strategies if you are entering (see the Strategies tab above to find out what is Diamond Cutter Strategies)

Hi,

Hope that the first trade alert brings a wonderful ang pow to you. Nothing better than starting a New Year on the profitable side.  I will be honest with you: As this is the first trade alert, I employed a lot of HA (Hope Analysis) on this trade as I wanted to start off on a profitable side. I have not had a restless sleep in a long time. Whew, at least it went the direction it projected. Will I get it wrong? Definitely will sooner or later. Remember that I am not 100% but as long as the profitable trade can cover the unprofitable trade, then it is good enough, right? Therefore, please please never show hand as I will never know when it will be a wrong trade and I always watch my cut loss level.

Now, for those that entered the trade, what can you do now?

1. Take all profits – It is never wrong to take profits as profits in the pocket is always safer than leaving it out in the market. Once you make this decision, you must not regret if it goes any higher and be contented.
2. Take half and leave half at breakeven – That means you will never lose this trade and always be on the profitable side.
3. Did not take profit but move your stop to breakeven – That means either you make a lot more if it goes higher or it will be a no trade (no profit, but also no loss) if it hits your stops. Either way, this will never be a losing trade.
4. Did not take profit but move your stop to higher level – That means either you make a lot more if it goes higher or it will be less profit if it hits. Also there is a possibility of whipsaw depending on how high you move your trailing stop.
5. Did not take profit but maintain your stop loss as mentioned – That means you are going to gamble to make as much as you can and will accept the loss if it does happen. The psychology on why you still maintain the stop at the low level is just in case there is a whipsaw before going even more higher.

Which one you pick above depends on your own risk. There is no wrong or right, as only you can understand your own risk. What is right for a person may not necessary be right for you. As long as you make the choice, just don’t regret it.

As this is the first trade alert that went out, I also learn a few things. I have to be clearer that

1. to announce that this alert is based on daily candle.
2. How long is the alert valid for.

Will I have another alert tomorrow? Definitely not as I do not like to chase and I do my best to send good alerts, not send an alert for the sake of sending it. Maybe the next alert would be around Jan 9 or 10th. Why? Because my Aunty Merkel and Uncle Sarkozy are having a rendezvous on the 9th, ke ke ke.

P/S: By the way, I am not interested to be right. I am more interested to make money out from the market most of the time. Therefore, please don’t bother to send me hate mail stating that I am wrong because if I am wrong, I will always have cut loss. And I will cut. I got several hate mails, similar to the ones that I received for Noble Grp previously. I just can’t please everyone.

Hi,
If you have subscribed to my mailing alert, you should have already received 2 emails from me with the trade entry. Do read the Rules of the Trade in the Strategies tab above before entering. And remember to watch your cut loss like a hawk, and never, NEVER show hand!
If you just sign up for the mailing alert after reading this, don’t worry. You will get the next alert once there is another trading opportunity. I will not be able to resend this 2 trade alert as the software does not allow me to filter that says “please resend for those that just sign up”. But you will get the next alert, ok?

The alert type will be in the heading. If you are not trading in the type or country, you can ignore it.

Jonathan

Note: I just vested in EUR/USD small as it is against the trend.

On daily chart, GPB/USD has a bullish divergence in MACD histogram, Williams, and RSI (note: I am not able to draw the line as this charting software is not that “friendly”. Do remember that you will be trading against the trend, therefore caution is needed.

Reposted this from Nov 3rd, 2011 with additional charts…

Posted this early this year to highlight a group of people to watch out for January turning point and now we all know it did happened. History always repeat itself, it may be different situation, but it will always repeat itself. Therefore, when you understand what had happened in the past, you will take note if similar situation repeat itself in the future.

If you take a look at 2010 January, you will notice that the high was made on Monday second full week of Jan 2010and then the entire week got weaker before starting to s-ell down on third week. If you look closely, there are several bearish candlestick reversal before it really starts to fall. Therefore, the good news is that there will be time for you to get out on your long position. Market will not fall in 1 day, market will always give you time. Question is, are you prepared to look at what the charts is telling you?

Note: As of now, Friday candle is a bearish engulfing candlestick.

My trading plan:
I really hope tonight report number will be very good and Dow will do a big rally. Then this weekend, everyone will be so bullish that all will start to think the opportunity that they missed in the first week of Jan (and all their friends are making money). They will be thinking, this time, if I missed it, I will miss the 2011 rally and with Chinese New Year Rally, this rally could be starting now. Then all will jump in on Monday and from Tuesday onwards, I will be looking out for bearish reversal candlestick especially on high volume. Time to go for the kill is on the confirmation day, 1 day later. Therefore, there will be time to exit, and time to enter. I do not have to take every trade especially if I am uncomfortable, right? We just about to complete only 5 days out of 200 trading days of the year. You mean if I miss this, I will miss out on all opportunity for this year? Next year? Forever?

Do note that i am always wrong. Market is always right. Is it possible that the scenario above will not happen? I will let the charts tell me what to do. If it does not happen, I will wait for the next setup to happen. Trading is like a lion: It will wait patiently hiding in the bush waiting for the injured animal to show up before pouncing it. Have a sniper mentality. A sniper will wait for days waiting for the enemy to show up before going for the kill.

 Additional information: What caused Dow Jones to turn down in January 2010? Below are the headline news from marketwatch.

Note: How to read the news (the date are saved date, which means it is for the previous trading day)
YYMMDD US Closing headline news. US Opening headline news.
On some heading, there are only 1 part, thus it will be
YYMMDD US CLosing headline news.

Above are what that had been posted. You will notice market will always give prior warning before anything happens. Your job is to recognize it. Below is what had happened early this year. Notice that market gave numerous warnings before it comes down, and also it “forecast” that japan will have earthquake…

If you look at the headlines, January started nicely due to good earnings report but halfway through both year turned down as China news is not that good. Just note that 2010 and 2011, US is still bullish whereas 2012 right now, US is in bear territory. Therefore, it may be different this year, but I will let the chart to decide.